(bright music) (dramatic music) - Welcome to Capitol View on WSIU.

I'm Brian Sapp, a reporter here in Carbondale with WSIU Radio.

It's the end of May, so that means getting near the end of the general assembly session.

That means we're finishing up the budget, wrapping up bills that we've been watching all Spring.

Also, the shuffle continues as after Senator Durbin announced his retirement and people are trying to decide if they're gonna jump in as a candidate for that position and that leaves other openings in the state.

Joining us this week to cover what's happening in Springfield and around the state are Andrew Adams with Capitol News Illinois and John Jackson, he's the visiting professor for the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.

Good morning.

- Good morning.

- Thanks for joining us.

John, we're gonna start with the budget.

You've been around for a few of these.

Not only is the General Assembly working on finishing that budget, we've got Congress working out its own budget, which will have an impact on the state.

Can you kind of fill us in, give us some context what we're looking at?

- Well, it's budget crunch time in both Springfield and Washington and it's interesting and unusual for it to come down for both the state and the national government being tied up in budget fighting.

And that's all going on and it's not unusual for this calendar in Illinois, but it is unusual in Washington at this point.

And there are some similarities and some important differences.

Similarities are that the majority party can do what it wants to do and work with the president or work with the governor to get it done.

But of course that depends on how big the majority is.

And obviously the majority is razor thin for the Republicans in the Congress and dealing with what is President Trump's budget proposal.

Whereas the Democrats have the luxury in the general assembly of having very strong control of the general assembly.

So they can pretty much do what they working with Governor Pritzker want to do.

The difference that's important is what Trump and the GOP majority do in Washington will have a major, could have a major impact on the Illinois budget.

And that's why it's difficult for Illinois right now to adopt the budget.

And what we in Illinois do will not have any impact on the Congress, of course.

So the states are all watching what comes out of the Budgeteers and all of the fights that's going on within the Republican party, especially in Washington because they're talking about cutting Medicaid, maybe Medicare, food stamps for example.

And all of the subsidy that goes for both solar and wind that are built into the Inflation Reduction Act that came from the Biden administration that Trump and the Republicans want to get out of, that'll push those fights and those needs down to the states, maybe make the states have to do something about it later.

So what I think will happen is the original Pritzker budget will probably be adopted in modified form by the close of business this month whereas they've got to wait then possibly until the Fall, could do a recess or they could have it come back for a special session later, or they could do it in the veto session in the Fall.

So that will be a remains to be announced kind of thing for the Illinois budget.

- Okay, so now that we've got that bigger picture, Andrew, what are you seeing there in Springfield?

Last week, Capitol News Illinois reported that Governor Pritzker revised the budget down $500 million.

And what is some of the talk happening with legislators there?

- Yeah, in Springfield there is, I'm gonna say a lot of tension around this budget.

Like John said, you know, a lot of states are trying to deal with the uncertainty coming from Washington.

Obviously federal funding is a huge part of any state's budget, and Illinois is no exception there.

So we're dealing with massive uncertainty on that front, meaning, you know, just normal planning is made more difficult.

And on top of that, we are seeing lower than expected revenues in a year where we already expected to see kind of a tighter budgeting situation than normal.

So most of the talk is centered on, you know, not necessarily what to cut.

'cause it's not that kind of year, but what programs can we afford to maintain or grow very modestly and what programs are going to need to, you know, shrink slightly or kinda stay flat, which, you know, with inflation and all of that, can feel like a cut, even if you're line item is the same.

So there's a lot of jockeying for people's personal projects and personal passions right now.

I will say that that process usually very secretive, kind of blew up recently.

One of the chairs of a budgeting committee was kind of suddenly ousted from Democratic inside circles and from the Democratic caucus, you know, and the Speaker of the House, Chris Welch will say that that situation was due to a number of factors, although most people looking at it saw that that person was creating an alternate budget and has clashed on the budget in years past and are wondering if that might have had something to do with it in this tense budget year.

- Now, what are some of the items or some of the budget money that is still being jockeyed for?

I think they're still trying to figure out this transit money for the transit system in Chicago is, where does that stand?

- Sure.

So much of the jockeying in the budget happens behind closed doors.

So much of the actual balancing happens in a way that us in the public will not find out until quite late in the week next week as we barrel towards the deadline.

But there are some big items like you said, that we know about, including, like you said, transit reform.

There's this problem in northern Illinois where the transit agencies that serve Chicago in the suburbs, which is about 2/3 of the state, so a big chunk of the state, they're overseen by one agency and together all of those agencies and the oversight board are looking at a $770 million per year budget gap, which will increase over time.

So for years they've been coming to the state warning about this and saying, we need your help, we need funding, we need a new tax, we need state grants, we need something to address this.

And then that budget gap starts to hit this year, right?

So in a matter of weeks at this point, but the state has a tight budget and several legislative leaders have indicated that they're not sure that any money is coming.

The senate president last week, I believe, at an event said that he wasn't sure they were gonna write a check for this.

They are probably going to pass some large reforms, which might, you know, as the proponents hope increase ridership, which would increase funds available to those agencies.

But that's a slow process to get that going.

So, that's one giant item that is kind of a good example of the kind of jockeying, the kind of belt tightening happening this year.

- Okay, John, I wanna just tie back a little bit to the Medicaid impact.

Do you think that that is something that will actually, they're going to make these cuts and that would be pretty significant for Illinois, wouldn't it?

- Oh, I don't think there's any doubt, that they'll make those cuts.

The Republicans have been wanting to go after Medicaid and they'll push it down to the states and the states will have to deal with it because there are millions of people that will be impacted if they cut Medicaid.

And not only that, there are doctors and hospitals that will be heavily impacted.

So I think the cut's going to come and I think the question will be what will the states do with it.

- Okay, I think we're gonna have to wait and see and see what the general assembly does with that.

Continuing with the general assembly, we've got plenty of bills that we've been following this year and Andrew, as we set up our show today, you had a few that you made a list of that you were following.

You want to walk us through a couple and what you're seeing with these?

- Sure, I'll do a bit of a quick hits, just kind of the big items that we might expect to see in the next, I think we're running on, you know, a number of days at this point.

One of the big ones I'm following is this big energy package.

It's not going to be quite as big as some of the huge reform packages we've seen in past years, but it will contain, you know, a lot of things unless negotiations fall apart, which in Springfield is always an option.

So that would include things like new incentives for solar and battery storage, you know, possibly lifting the remaining restrictions at the state level on nuclear energy, which has been a big talking point in Springfield and increasing requirements for energy efficiency, which would theoretically try to help keep prices down everywhere in the state.

If you have Ameren or ComEd in northern Illinois, you're going to see a big price spike on your electric bill on June 1st.

So that's coming and people are working to get that down.

Outside of energy, one of Pritzker's, the governor's big items on his legislative agenda this year was a proposal to allow community colleges to offer bachelor's degrees so that you could offer a four year degree at a community college.

Something that they haven't been able to do for a long time.

The idea there is making college more accessible if you don't happen to live in Champaign or Carbondale.

That was initially kind of controversial.

People weren't on board, although there's rumblings that it might come back from that other side where unpopular bills go in these final days.

Some of the other big issues, AI is huge.

There's several bills that would put new restrictions on artificial intelligence tools.

There's always talk of a possible pension reform coming.

The pension, the new kind of pension introduced 15 years ago or so in 2011, some say runs a vowel on federal regulations, federal social security requirements, in a way that is going to cost the state a lot of money if we don't deal with it.

So as people who have that kind of pension, so to hit retirement age in the coming years, we need to deal with that.

So there could be something along those lines as well along with, you know, quite possibly hundreds of other smaller bills or more focused bills that we could see.

- Okay, John, we were talking a little bit and you had some input, you work, you know, with the university here at Carbondale and you had some background with the bachelor's degrees being offered by the community colleges.

What have you seen and what's maybe some bigger context in this idea?

- Well this goes back easily to the 1990s.

I used to deal with this issue on behalf of SIU and I know it well.

It's been around because community colleges are always ambitious.

They always want to add some programs and some areas that they can get into and they've long wanted to start offering four year degrees.

So that discussion's been around.

The difference this time though is Governor Pritzker has endorsed it and put it into his own plans.

And so that's a whole different deal.

There are only 12 major four year universities in the public side.

There are 48 community colleges.

So that evens up the possibilities both ways.

I think this one will definitely come back around and I think the issue will be, can they draw the language fairly narrowly in the areas where the community colleges in technology and things that lead to vocations and things that produce immediate jobs And can the community colleges then ramp up their four year degrees in that fairly narrow band.

And that's what the universities will probably aggressively try to keep in place or put the definitions in the legislation that would specify that.

And if so, I think they'll probably do it in some session in very near future.

And the other one is the Baldwin Plant I wanna bring up in southern Illinois.

Southwestern Illinois adds to what Adam was saying, that's a big deal for Ameren and the question is, can we produce enough electricity while getting out of the coal fired and even the gas fired and can we produce that fast enough not to ultimately create some brownouts and some real shortages of generation with the ambitious plan to get out of coal especially, and to a lesser extent, gas, and the Baldwin Plant's slated for closure.

And that's a very big deal around here and really a big deal for Ameren.

That fight's yet to be played out.

- I think that's going to, in the press releases that I receive through the week, the past couple weeks, I've been seeing more of this push to the electric prices I've received, you know, information from the city of Carbondale here has a program where they've talked about the prices and the choice.

And so I think that, yeah, over the next few weeks and especially as people open up those energy bills, we all get 'em, we're gonna probably have some sticker shock and try to figure that out.

And then to your point about the, I'm curious to see how the community colleges worked out, because I talked with the president of Shawnee Community College, he wrote a op-ed and was pushing for that.

He did sound like he really wants to keep it focused and narrow and so I guess we'll just have to see if they can work it out.

And it sounds like writing that specific language to make sure that everybody is able to keep what's important to them.

Moving on, let's talk, go back federal a little bit and follow up on Senator Durbin.

It's been a couple weeks now that since he announced that he is going to retire, he replaced Senator Paul Simon.

John, you've been in the area here and know Senator Simon and Senator Durbin.

Where do we stand and what kind of impact will this have and what do you think's gonna happen next?

- Well, I think this is a huge loss for Illinois.

Dick Durbin has major respect, major power, significant role that he plays for the Democrats in the Senate and has for a long time.

He's not only got power, he's got the respect of his peers.

That's indicated by that he's the elected second ranking Democrat in the Senate second only to Chuck Schumer.

And he could have probably stayed on fairly easily.

I think it notable this week, especially that Senator Durbin's 80 and he could have probably gone another term, but is it wise and can these very powerful people decide to step down?

Joe Biden's case very relevant, not so relevant, but specific to the Senate, Chuck Grassley's the most senior senator at more than 90 years of age now, indicating that this is unusual for people to step down the way Durbin is doing.

And so that can't be replaced for Illinois.

The contenders, of course are lining up and the list is fairly well known.

Lieutenant Governor Stratton immediately announced and within hours announced and the next day I think it was, got the endorsement, very important endorsement of Governor Pritzker.

And that's a major advantage.

But there is representative Raja Krishnamoothi, he's originally from Peoria, so he can claim downstate roots now representing suburban Chicago.

So he's got geography and he's also got $20 million in his campaign fund.

So that speaks pretty loudly.

At first, we had two others, Robin Kelly, who's very respected in the Congress and was on Dick Durbin's staff.

So she's got some important advantages.

Lauren Underwood, representative from the suburbs was in for a while.

But I understand she's now dropped out.

In a related, Jan Schakowsky announced that she's not running, so there's another open seat there.

Lots of experience and lots of possibilities for loss of seniority.

And then there's a possibility of Rep. LaHood coming up and running for the Republicans.

That would be another house seat that would be in place.

So Illinois's got a lot at stake on the seniority and power in terms of four or five of these people leaving the House and/or the Senate.

- Okay, now, Andrew, just do these, this loss of experience.

What kind of impact will that have in Springfield, maybe working at the federal level?

I'm sure there's a breadth of contacts, but what kind of impacts are you hearing that this might have?

- I think genuinely, I think the biggest impacts here is not necessarily like pick up the phone and have the man inside in Washington, but the sheer number of seats that are open, like John was saying, it's kind of hard to understate, like this does not happen to this scale very often.

The phrase musical chairs gets thrown around a lot because Durbin steps down, some of the congressional people run for that seat.

Some of the State House people run for those congressional seats.

Someone is going to probably fill in for Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton if there is, you know, more of the Pritzker administration.

So there's a lot of people moving around, a lot of seats opening up all the way down kind of the chain of offices as you get more local.

So there is some real knock on effects there.

Some kind of prominent folks in the State House are running for Congress in, you know, for example Jane Schakowsky's seat up here in Chicago.

And it's kind of hard to understate how many people are looking around and saying, "Well that seat's gone, maybe I can get a friend in Senator Peter's chair next term," or you know, whatever seat they might be looking at.

- So it sounds like an interesting next year or so for those of us that like to watch politics and see things move around.

Definitely interested to see how it shakes out and who rises to the top.

We've got time for one more discussion here.

We've got about four minutes left.

John, you and I are here in Carbondale.

Last week, Governor Pritzker came to the area, he made a couple of stops.

The first was in Marion.

He was in town for a groundbreaking of a large retail entertainment development here using the first use of star bonds.

And then he went over to Giant City State Park.

They had made some improvements at the stables there.

I've been here in Carbondale, at WSIU since the beginning of the year.

This is the first time he's come down here.

What does this signal to you?

Is this just a normal visit or is there something more Governor Pritzker is trying to accomplish, do you think?

- Well, it's a good government and good politics.

It's good government in that he comes down and encourages these local things.

I thought the one out at the riding stable for Giant City Park was particularly instructive because it's not a great deal of money.

And yet there was a delegation there.

Senator Fowler, who's a Republican, was there and spoke and it was very bipartisan.

This riding stable has been there and an asset to Giant City, but it was not all weather.

And it's especially tuned toward the needs of disabled people and veterans with problems that horseback riding therapy is important.

So there he is making that way out in the woods, literally kind of announcement.

And on the other end of the continuum, he's become a major voice criticizing and opposing Donald Trump.

He goes a long way back with this.

That is Trump had the governors in for a big dinner right after he was elected the first time.

And the governor that spoke out loudest and got the most coverage that night was JB Pritzker.

So he's been doing this a long time.

And then of course, much more recently, he goes to New Hampshire, makes a speech to the Democratic activist and loyalist in New Hampshire.

And that's not a coincidence because New Hampshire's the first primary.

And so that was a pretty clear signal and he takes on that role with relish and he's gotten a lot of good national publicity out of it.

And he's been called, I think with some reason, a pragmatic progressive.

You can emphasize the progressive part if you're running in democratic primaries.

And you can emphasize the pragmatic part if you make it to the general election, that is he's got to get through a democratic primary, which will be tough.

But he can talk about all that he's gotten done as governor.

He can talk about dealing with our structural deficit.

He can talk about the fact that Moody's has raised the Illinois credit rating seven times under his leadership.

And he'll be glad to point out to you that Moody's just reduced the United States credit rating for the first time in history.

And he'll be out there and will love to take on that comparison to show him governing while the president or his likely successor has to make a case that's not very strong on the national level.

- Definitely, that was one of the things I noticed was the bipartisan nature at the groundbreaking, Senator Fowler was there and lots of talk about that.

But that's all the time that we have today.

So Andrew and John, thank you for being here today and your analysis.

I really enjoyed it.

That's it for this week's edition of Capitol View.

Join us next time as we look at what's making news around the state of Illinois.

And thanks to the crew behind the scenes here making this happen.

For Andrew Adams and John Jackson, I'm Brian Sapp.

Thank you for joining us this week on Capitol View.

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