(upbeat music) (dramatic music) - Welcome to "Capitol View" on WSIU.

I'm Jeff Williams sitting in this week as we take a look at what's making news around the state in Illinois politics.

And to help guide our discussion this week, are Hannah Meisel, state house in Chicago reporter for Capitol News Illinois, and Mawa Iqbal, state house reporter for WBEZ and for our Illinois public radio stations.

Welcome back to the program.

- Thanks for having us.

- Thanks.

- All right, you know, as a recovering state house reporter myself, I know this time of year is a chance to kinda catch your breath from the fire hose that is the legislative session, but still quite a bit going on, and I wanna start this week with Governor JB Pritzker.

So for the past few months, there has been the building question of will he run for reelection or will he focus on a potential presidential run?

And it appears at least part of the answer is yes to at least one of those questions.

It appears he has scheduled announcements for Thursday to announce his reelection bid.

I do want just a point of clarification, we are taping this program on Wednesday.

It will air on Thursday, but we're having this discussion prior to him actually making the announcement.

Hannah, I'll start with you, but kind of set the stage.

What might we expect to hear from Governor Pritzker during his announcement?

- Well, yeah, I mean, like you said, there had been some speculation whether he was gonna run, whether he's not gonna run.

You know, I think that especially after President Donald Trump won for a second term, that kind of sealed the governor's fate, because he has, you know, been out there as one of the leading Democratic voices fighting against the president.

You know, he's also shielded by his money in a way that, you know, some of the other Kamala Harris surrogates who are also governors, you know, they've kind of faded back into, you know, their state roles.

And I think, you know, part of that is there is a lot to be lost by going toe-to-toe with the administration.

But you know, since Pritzker is independently, you know, very wealthy, he's shielded in a lot of ways by that and his national profile has grown.

But you know, the thing is when you're an out-of-power Democrat, you are definitely just not as relevant.

And so I think that, you know, Pritzker had no choice but to stay in office.

And also, you know, if he wants to run for president in 2028, you know, it's much more of a position of power to run.

Yes, it is a lot.

And you know, then it also opens you up to questions, criticisms of how much are you paying attention to the state versus how much time are you spending on the road campaigning.

But you know, as a third-termer, he would be able to deflect that and say, you know, "I've built the strongest team."

You know, at that point he'll have been in office for 9, 10 years and you know, he'll be able to deflect that.

And so, you know, I think there's a lot of interesting questions.

Of course, Governor Pritzker's lieutenant governor, his running mate twice, Juliana Stratton, she announced in April that she is running for U.S. Senate to replace retiring longtime Illinois U.S.

Senator Dick Durbin.

And so that opens up an opportunity for another running mate.

I've heard a few names.

Andy Manar, a former state senator and, you know, now longtime advisor in the governor's office.

I've also heard a couple names, Christian Mitchell, who was a former state rep, former deputy governor, but he left the administration a couple years ago to go, I think, to the University of Chicago.

He's been possibly floated state representative Jehan Gordon-Booth from Peoria also been floated.

So it'll be really interesting to see.

But you know, it's also... You know, in Illinois we have had a spate of, you know, one-termers or half-termers in the case of former ex-governor Rod Blagojevich, who of course, halfway through his second term was arrested and then impeached, and then lieutenant governor Pat Quinn had to step in and, of course, had lackluster performance.

And then we had one-termer governor Bruce Rauner, under whom we had a state budget impasse.

And so it's been a while since we've had, you know, anyone successfully complete two terms, let alone, you know, run for a third.

And the last person who did that was Governor Jim Thompson, who, of course, was governor from the, I believe, late '70s until the early '90s.

And, you know, from the beginning of Governor Pritzker's running and then, you know, being in office, he's often been compared to Governor Thompson.

Of course, it's a wildly different political climate now.

He was a Republican who was, you know, very much amenable to working across the aisle.

Pritzker and Republicans, of course, not getting along so well in this political climate.

But, you know, the embodiment of someone who wants to get big things done is, you know, the big Jim Thompson moniker, you know, big personality, big person.

It just really interesting to see, you know, this play out.

- Yeah.

Mawa, throughout this particular session, this was probably the first difficult budget for many of these lawmakers this year.

I mean, there was some negativity or maybe some concern expressed against even from both sides of the aisle with the governor and his leadership and what he's been doing.

In terms of going into this next potential reelection bid, Is there, you know, the adage is "as goes Chicago, so does the state."

Is his Democratic power base still there or is there potentially maybe an opening there on the Republican side if the right challenger is picked?

- I think he definitely has some strong coalition support, I would say.

You know, it was interesting when the budget was being deliberated in the legislature, one of the big sticking points for members within his own Democratic party was this major cut to the HBIA program, which is essentially health benefits for immigrant adults.

So we have two programs in Illinois there's one for seniors, which is people who are 65 and older, and then one for adults, 41 to 64.

And so, you know, like you said, it was a very tough budget year, right?

The governor said that he wanted to pass a balanced budget, but he also didn't wanna raise any income taxes.

But there's also a lot of federal uncertainty, right?

There's a lot of budget constraints just coming from what was happening from the Trump administration.

And so his decision was to cut the HBIA program, which would have provided the state version of Medicaid to undocumented adults aged 41 and 64.

And that was something that members of the Latino caucus really, really, and other members of the progressive caucus just really were not for.

And even sort of hinted at maybe not even voting for the budget, right?

Like I talked to the Latino caucus chair in the House, Leader Lisa Hernandez, and she was like, "You know, I don't know.

We'll see if I'll vote for the budget or not."

But then, of course, you know, the budget came, right, like on the last day of session and everyone voted, everyone in the Democratic coalition voted for it.

So I can't imagine that there'd be any, you know, rift or friction amongst his base for his reelection.

It is interesting though, you know what Hannah was mentioning that there's, you know, like being an active governor while also running for president potentially in 2028, it's, you know, he has been releasing these like sort of campaign style emails since Trump has been inaugurated.

Just like, you know, blasting the administration for whatever they're doing.

But mostly it's been around like, you know, immigration policy, deportation raids, funding cuts to Department of Education and other different, you know, programs that Pritzker says are vital for Illinois.

So I can definitely see like, you know, if he decides to run for the presidency in 2028 while also retaining his governor's spot, I can definitely see him balancing both and trying to use his role as governor by saying like, "Look, this is what I'm doing in Illinois.

I'm fighting for working families, I'm fighting for children, you know, and that's why you should vote for me for president."

- Yeah, yeah.

Hannah, you touched on some potential lieutenant governor running mates.

Does the political calculus change when the governor potentially is gonna be making a presidential run mid-term in terms of who becomes the more appealing or potentially more effective running mate in that second position?

- Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the average Illinoisan probably doesn't know who our lieutenant governor is.

Or maybe they've heard the name before, probably doesn't know what the lieutenant governor does.

You know, that's a thing that is kind of a self-defined role by who fills it.

But I will say that like, you know, if like I said, he's seven years... Rather, he's 9, 10 years into being governor and he's running in 2028, he would like to leave the state, you know, in someone's hands who would kind of be acting governor.

And I think, you know, that person could be Andy Manar, like I said.

You know, someone who, when he was in the state legislature, definitely big budget mind, he works closely with, you know, budgeting process now, you know, working with Democrats in the legislature.

You know, but I also think that, you know, who you run with makes a statement.

And so when he chose Juliana Stratton, who was still, you know, in her first term as a state representative back in, I think it was 2017 when he announced her, you know, that sends a signal to say like, "We are prioritizing a black woman to run with me because I am prioritizing diversity and lifting up voices that, you know, haven't traditionally been heard in state government."

But again, I think my broader answer is yes and no, just because the lieutenant governor position is, you know, kind of small potatoes.

But you know, the classic advice of any political strategist is you don't want anyone who's gonna embarrass you.

- That's right, that's right.

Either one of you, has there been any inkling yet on the Republican side of the aisle as to who might be potentially looking to challenge Pritzker in this upcoming election?

- Yeah, state representative Blaine Wilhour, who has been an active member of this Freedom Caucus that's sprung up in the last, I don't know, six, seven years in the Illinois house.

He has been, you know, kind of loudly preparing his run for governor.

He's definitely in the mold of Darren Bailey.

When Darren Bailey was running for governor in 2022, Blaine was, you know, one of his, kind of close advisors going to all of these, you know, campaign events with him.

I feel like I frequently saw him, talked to him there.

But you know, just like we saw in 2022, that's a limited kind of base for these ultra conservative Republicans in Illinois.

You know, I've also heard Darren LaHood's name, congressman Darren LaHood from Peoria area, represents a pretty big district in southern, or central Illinois rather.

You know, his name has been floated, but his name has also been floated as a potential challenger for U.S. Senate.

And I think he and other, you know, Republican strategists maybe in DC would have to decide jointly, like, what would be the most bang for your buck?

Because either way, it would be an uphill battle for a Republican to win.

But you know, the point wouldn't necessarily be to win.

Of course, you know, you don't get into a race if you don't think there's at least a chance, but you know, to realistically put your life, your career on hold for a year and a half, what would you want to do?

What kind of statement would you wanna make?

What kind of, you know, gains would you wanna make with voters, even if it ultimately doesn't bear out at the ballot box, but, you know, try to make an impact, some inroads.

And so, you know, which position would he run for to do that?

I guess we'll see.

- Yeah, I'll say, too, that like after the general elections, you know, where President Trump won, there are a lot of people within the Illinois Republican coalition who felt pretty emboldened.

Like "This is our moment."

You know, like, "Look at all these people in Illinois who voted for Trump," even though Kamala Harris still won by I think a double-digit margin over Trump.

They were, you know...

There's been...

So some Republicans saying that, you know, that gap is closing or it has closed this cycle and it's a shorter gap than in previous presidential cycles.

So it'll definitely be interesting to see like what, especially what Congressman LaHood decides, like if he decides for Senate or gubernatorial, you know, he's definitely been a long-time Trump supporter.

Like since 2015, he's been a very like strong, strong advocate for President Trump.

So he's definitely one of the more like Trump Republicans.

(chuckles) But we'll see how that fares out in Illinois.

Like Hannah was saying, it's definitely an uphill battle for a state that's such a Democratic stronghold, even with this most recent presidential elections, you know, shortening of the gap.

- Yeah, I should also mention, you know, a couple other names that have been floated.

I think James Mendrick, I believe he's at DuPage County Sheriff, he has declared for governor a while ago.

And then Cook County Republican party chairman Aaron Del Mar, who until recently was co-chair of the state Republican party has also been, you know, pretty publicly interested but has not formally announced yet.

- Well, it certainly appears that voters are in the March primary are going to need a scorecard and we may need a whiteboard or a telestrator to look at what all is, all the chess pieces as they're moving around that is creating a little bit of this primary chaos.

We'll start with the Senate race.

Senator Durbin announced earlier this year that he was not going to seek reelection.

So that immediately opened up a lot of movement, as you mentioned, including the lieutenant governor and, well, I think there are, what, now at least three declared candidates for this senate seat that may result in what, two or three or even possibly four open congressional seats, depending on who's retiring and who's not.

Who'd like to start?

(laughing) - Yeah, I mean we've got you know...

So like what Hannah had mentioned earlier, we have Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, who of course, has the backing of Pritzker, you know.

Financially speaking, that that's a pretty, pretty, pretty good advantage for her.

As we were talked about, you know, Pritzker is independently very wealthy and has been funneling, you know, millions of dollars into different campaigns over the past few years for Democrats in various positions.

So we have her, we have Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is a long-time Democrat.

We also have Congresswoman Robin Kelly.

So it's interesting, right, to just to see like how these candidates are campaigning, how much money they're raising.

And then, of course, you have with Krishnamoorthi and Kelly, you have this more national recognition, because they've already been serving as federal lawmakers, versus Juliana Stratton, you know, like we've talked about.

She's lieutenant governor.

You know, how many people know what lieutenant governors even do, right?

And there's also this, what I've been thinking, this question of, you know, how is she gonna differentiate herself from Pritzker, right?

Like is there a real concern that she has just kind of been in under his shadow?

And I think we've, at least I've seen, you know, over the past year that she's definitely tried to pick certain issues to sort of demarcate as like her issues, right?

So she's been a really strong advocate for maternal mortality or I should say, services for people needing healthcare around maternity issues, right?

And the disparities between black women and white women in Illinois and maternal mortality rates and different birth initiatives.

So it'll be interesting, I think, to see, you know, like what she ends up doing to, I guess, further differentiate herself from Pritzker and try to get herself catapulted into sort of the national spotlight.

- Mm-hmm.

- Yeah.

- Yeah, go ahead Hannah.

- Yeah, she certainly has a huge advantage.

Of course, she was the first one to announce.

You know, at the time I said, it really doesn't matter, it's so early in the process and I still stand by that.

But, you know, I think the time to announce your candidacy also might have closed in these last couple of months.

And I don't see anyone else jumping in, you know, the three top candidates as Mawa said.

Also Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi both have a huge advantage because they're already in Congress.

They already know, you know, the DC Democratic funding machine.

They have this position of strength just by virtue of already being there.

But it's gonna be a really interesting primary, possibly might turn ugly as these things often do.

And you know, it's very interesting to see what camps, you know...

I guess it's kind of a parlor game that, you know, regular people don't really pay attention to because it ultimately, you know, not in the service of government.

But like just to see who has endorsed whom and jumped on board with which campaigns early.

- Yeah.

So what does this do to the power structure here?

Especially if the Democratic national party's looking in here, you have three, potentially four solidly Democratically controlled seats, I think Schakowsky is retiring, and we don't know what's going to happen with Representative Davis, but then you've got two sitting congressmen that are now, you know, going potentially in the Senate race or in the Senate race.

What is this probability?

Is there an opening there for the Republican party in the state of Illinois?

Or are those seats, congressional seats in fairly strong Democratic districts in the state?

- Those seats are very, very solidly Democratic.

You know, I think that Republicans, you know, there's already declared Republicans in each of those districts, but like they're not really any household names.

But, you know, it's really interesting, in the last 12 years that I've been covering Illinois, I've really never seen a time when there's been so many primary races and, you know, I'll just briefly go down the list of, you know, kind of more prominent names.

So Robin Kelly, who represents the second district, her running for Senate opens that up.

And state Senator Robert Peters seems to be the kind of leading name there, already endorsed by Bernie Sanders, with whom he's had a close relationship for a while now.

In the eighth district, which is currently held by Raja Krishnamoorthi, we have Junaid Ahmed, who challenged Krishnamoorthi in 2022.

Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison, Hanover Park Village Trustee Yasmeen Bankole.

In the ninth district, like you mentioned, Jan Schakowsky is retiring.

We have Evanston mayor and former state Senator Daniel Biss vying for that seat, along with progressive activist Kat Abughazaleh and state Senator Laura Fine.

And like you said, possibly we'll see an announcement from Danny Davis.

He's been a little coy about that.

But, you know, I don't wanna say that this is happening by any means, but one person whose name has been floated, if that possibility would ever open up, is actually Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch.

- Mm-hmm, and one thing I'll add too is that, you know, what does this do, right?

I feel like, you know, we have all these progressives, the progressive Democrats throwing their hats in the ring, right?

And there's been a real question, I think, since Kamala Harris lost the presidency of like, where does the Democratic party go from here?

And I think, you know, in response to that, there's been a real faction that's emerged as like, you know, "We are progressive, more like, I guess, socialist leaning Dems, and we're gonna bring the party forward," right?

With people like Bernie Sanders, Hannah mentioned, AOC, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.

You've got, you know, David Hogg, who's the vice chair of the Democratic National Convention saying that we need to uplift these candidates.

And he even mentioned Jan Schakowsky's seat.

Right before she announced retiring, he was like, you know, "I think we should really put our weight behind Kat Abughazaleh," who's, like Hannah mentioned, this activist leftist streamer, Twitch streamer.

So it'll be interesting to see, you know, like now that the Democratic party's trying to find its identity, you know, with these open races, right?

Like where's they put, you know... Where do voters feel like the Democratic party needs to go, right?

Is it the more like traditional moderate, you know, establishment seats or is it more like these newcomer progressive people that are trying to, I guess, change things up?

- Well, as usual on this program, we have much more to talk about than we have time.

So in the last couple of minutes that we have, what's on each of your radars?

What are you watching?

What are you following in the days and weeks to come here?

- Aside from Pritzker announcing his reelection, right, 'cause this was of course taped on Wednesday, so it's gonna be happening on Thursday.

I've been following... We saw this report from the Associated Press yesterday of the Department of Homeland Security is gaining access to Medicaid data and specifically states' Medicaid data.

And it's for the purposes of immigration enforcement, right?

So like we talked about in Illinois, there's a program that allows people who are undocumented to enroll in like a state version of Medicaid.

So it's, you know, like of course, a lot of Democratic politicians are saying that this is completely not okay.

And it's maybe not even legal.

You know, potentially Attorney General Kwame Raoul will be getting involved.

So I'll be tracking that to see like what comes of it.

But it certainly speaks to this larger issue of data privacy in the Trump administration, I think.

- Hannah?

- Well, I know it's all kind of old news now, but earlier this month, I was in the courtroom for former Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan's sentencing, when the judge sentenced him to 7 1/2 years in prison, which I think was longer than a lot of people expected.

But at the end of that pretty lengthy hearing, his attorney said, you know, "Hey, judge, we're going to, just so you know, we're gonna appeal, and then we're gonna ask for, you know, Mr. Madigan to be bonded out while the appeals process plays out."

So I'm gonna be looking for when that appeal is formally, you know, filed and the ask to be out of prison on appeal, because I cannot tell you how many people have asked me in the last, you know, week and a half, is Mike Madigan actually gonna report to prison in October?

And you know, the answer, I truly have no idea.

A lot of things can happen.

- Well, Hannah, I'll let you have the last word.

Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois, Mawa Iqbal, WBEZ, thank you both for joining us this week, And thank you for joining us on "Capitol View."

I'm Jeff Williams, this is WSIU.

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