[MUSIC] >> Welcome to Capital View on Sisu.

I'm Jeff Williams sitting in this week as we take a look at what's making news around the state in Illinois politics.

The leading candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for U.S.

Senate squared off in their first debate.

We're going to take a closer look.

Plus probably a couple of other stories this week on Capitol View.

And to help lead our discussion, our Dan Petrella, political writer for the Chicago Tribune, and Kent Redfield, political science professor emeritus from the University of Illinois, Springfield.

Gentlemen, welcome back to the program.

>> Good morning.

>> Glad to be here.

>> Well, earlier this week, the leading three candidates in the race for the Democratic U.S.

Senate nomination held their first live broadcast debate featuring a congresswoman Robin Kelly, Congressman Roger Krishnamoorthi, and Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton.

They took part in a forum hosted by WBEZ on Monday.

It, I think, is probably the first time most voters have probably seen them all, at least these three candidates in the same room at the same time.

Dan, I know you were there.

How would you assess this first public meeting of of these candidates?

>> Yeah, it was an interesting night.

It was at the international House on the campus of the University of Chicago and down in Hyde Park on the South Side.

And it was very clear from the start that the lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, um, sort of, uh, use a bad cliche, came out swinging in the debate.

She really went aggressively after her opponents, particularly Congresswoman Krishnamoorthi, who is the, um, you know, perceived frontrunner in the race, uh, based on the fact that he is one of the most prodigious fundraisers in all of Congress and has been airing TV ads since the summer.

And, um, so it was very heated from her part to Congressman Krishnamurthy even sort of quipped, as an aside at one point, that he should have brought body armor with him to to the debate.

Her campaign even had a digital billboard outside up outside the venue criticizing the congressman for some of his campaign contributors.

So, um, she was very clearly, um, trying to to, uh, stake her own lane, try to, to differentiate herself from the two other candidates with more Washington experience in the race.

Um, you know, on on a lot of policy issues, there's not much daylight between between the three candidates.

Uh, but, uh, Lieutenant Governor Stratton was was trying very hard and very aggressively to, uh, point out and distinguish those places where there is some difference on their positions, particularly on issues related to campaign finance and, uh, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and, uh, and other issues like that.

>> Um, so, so Dan or Candy, the one in an event like this.

With these, at least with these three front runners.

Um, what is there any one of them has potentially something to gain or potentially something that they can lose as a result of, of, of these debates?

We never know exactly what's what's going to happen or come out whenever these whenever these things happen.

But who has the most to gain and most potentially lose in this, in this, in this series of debates that are coming up?

>> Well, I think this if you look at the one, you know, professional poll we've had recently, you still got about 46% of the electorate that is undecided.

Uh, these are not well known names.

Uh, even though the lieutenant governor has been lieutenant governor for seven years, uh, she essentially held office, was a state rep for two years and, and then was picked out of at the time, uh, people were saying, you know, Relative obscurity.

Uh, to be, uh, Governor Pritzker's lieutenant governor.

And, uh, you know, it's it's pretty clear from at at right now that, uh, you know, she doesn't have a huge statewide presence.

You would think that being elected twice to statewide office, that would be a difference.

Uh, and, uh, you know, Christopher Murphy, uh, we're talking $30 million.

Sounds like a lot.

Isn't probably a lot in terms of kind of, you know, competitive general elections.

But he's been the voice that's been out there and he's, you know, people can, you know, if you watch television and you've got some, some name recognition, uh, I think the one that that probably has the biggest hill to climb is, is, uh, you know, uh, representative or congressperson, uh, Kelly, that, uh, she really is not, uh, you know, known, uh, now again in a Democratic primary, uh, you know, 19% of the vote comes from downstate.

Uh, so, you know, these are the candidates you'd expect to have, but, you know, it's at this point visibility so that people know you're running and then viability, people have some sense that you're up to the job.

And so, you know, I Stratton certainly did what you intended in terms of kind of being the name that was at the, you know, for the, the, the first name mentioned.

But uh, uh, you know, this is, you know, pretty early in the game, but that's the the problem right now is getting people known, you know, that they've got to recognize a name and then something to associate with the name.

>> I wanted to, um, I want just to note at this point that there are also seven other Democrats in the race that were not included in in Monday's debate, based on on polling there, Steve Botsford, Sean Brown, uh, Bustos, Jonathan Dean, Brian Maxwell, Kevin Ryan and Christopher Swan.

It's probably safe to say that that most voters have not heard much from these particular candidates at this point in the campaign, and I don't think they're going to be included in the in the ABC seven, uh, debate that's going to be going on in Chicago on Thursday, the same day that this program airs.

At this point, are there campaigns, uh, perfunctory, or does one of these other seven candidates have a chance of playing playing spoiler in in this Democratic primary?

>> Well, I wouldn't say they're perfunctory.

I mean, I know particularly you mentioned Kevin Ryan has been going around the state on a bus, I think has maybe at this point visited all 102 counties of the state.

So certainly at least some of them are putting some effort into this race, but I think it speaks to the difficulty.

Um, you know, in a wide open primary like this of breaking through when you are not, you know, already a statewide office holder or a member of Congress, just the the amount of funding that it takes to run a Senate campaign.

Um, you know, even the lieutenant governor who's been in office for seven years, like Ken said, has has, you know, struggled somewhat to to raise funds.

Now we're going to see at the end of the month, uh, the quarterly disclosures covering the end of the year, and also from an outside super PAC that's supporting her that suddenly has gone up with TV commercials, um, despite the fact that they have yet to report any, any fundraising.

But we'll see what they received in the, the last quarter of 2025.

Uh, and that is presumably going to be at least some money from, uh, from Governor Pritzker into that super PAC because it's his former deputy campaign manager who's running it, his former, uh, governor's side and campaign side, press secretary and communications director who's handling communications for that super PAC.

So, um, you know, there's a lot of resources behind these other campaigns.

And it's really hard, especially in the Senate race, where you have to run statewide to to do it on sort of the grassroots level.

And, um, you know, I think obviously social media and, um, the way campaigns are run online now has changed things a bit, but I still think it's incredibly hard to, uh, to break through and, and get attention for your campaign when you're not either, uh, somebody who already has experience in public office or somebody who has the independent means to, uh, to really build your own platform.

Um.

>> Ah, do you think are we to the point in this, uh, Democratic primary for U.S.

Senate, where at this point we have the three top contenders there?

Is it the point of who's going to end up spending the most money in the long run as we close in on the on the on the March primary money is.

>> You know, it's it's necessary but not sufficient people uh with money, always beat people that don't have any money.

But beyond that, it's a threshold thing.

You've got to have enough money, name recognition, endorsement issue, something that gets you, you know, to the point where you kind of break through.

And the easiest way in the modern campaign is political parties have become much, much weaker, uh, is to be able to self-fund or to have some really wealthy friends.

In the old days, we'd be talking about, uh, who the state Democratic Party or the Cook County Party had slated and then who the Democratic Party, uh, you know, had gotten together in Springfield and, and ratified that endorsement, uh, you know, those that used to be pretty much the primary, uh, now, when that died, uh, I think Phil Rock was slated by the party and and ran like third or fourth.

Uh, and when Paul Simon got the nomination.

So.

So money is important, but it is more what gets you out there.

>> Um, Dan, I wanted to ask, since you saw the debate, observed the debate on on Monday, was there something that you saw that was new or a different aspect of of these three front runners that may be new to those in the in the voting public that that either tuned in or watched the YouTube feed.

>> You know, one thing that stood out to me, and this is something a broader issue that's standing out among among Democrats now is the approach to, um, Ice and the the slogan of abolishing Ice.

You've seen sort of a, a bifurcation where you have folks like the lieutenant governor who are who have are fully embracing this slogan of abolish Ice.

And then you have others, um, like, uh, Congressman Krishnamoorthi and, uh, Congresswoman Kelly, who, um, are sort of using a phrase or some version of the phrase abolish Trumps ice?

So they're saying we shouldn't throw out the agency altogether, but we need to sort of pull back on what the Trump administration is doing with that agency now.

And it's really an interesting distinction.

And interestingly enough, Governor Pritzker, who is one of Lieutenant Governor Stratton's most vocal supporters in the Senate campaign, is on the Abolish Trumps Ice side of that divide, where Congressman Krishnamoorthi is versus where his lieutenant governor is on the on the abolish Ice side.

It also gets into a whole, um, you know, question about the logistics of how you would actually do that and who would handle those responsibilities.

And, um, I asked the lieutenant governor about that after the debate on Monday and she said, well, you know, there's still Border Patrol.

We still need to protect our borders, but it's actually Border Patrol that has been responsible for some of the most egregious, um, oversteps that have happened in these these crackdowns here in Chicago and in Minneapolis.

It was Border Patrol who who shot, uh, Alex Peretti in Minneapolis.

So, you know, Ice has been the focal point of of people's rage and ire.

But it's really, you know, several agencies within Department of Homeland Security that have been involved and and not always Ice that's responsible for the most, uh, you know, jarring things that we've seen.

>> Again, these three candidates will be right back in action on ABC seven Chicago debate that's taking place on, on, on on Thursday.

Dan, is there anything you expect to see that maybe come out different in now?

They've already had a warm up.

Now this is the second one in a matter of a week.

>> Yeah.

What I'll be watching for is whether, um, you know, the the lieutenant governor ratchets back the sort of the attack mode that she was in on on Monday night a little bit.

Um, or whether she goes, uh, continues to go hard, particularly at Congressman Krishnamoorthi and whether her opponents, um, go after her a little more aggressively than than they did in the first meeting.

Um, you know, they were, uh, sort of happy to to brush aside the criticisms or explain, You know, where maybe there was some gray area and some of the criticisms that she was lobbying at, lobbying at them.

And, you know, there is the idea that if you're explaining, you're losing in politics.

But, um, you know, I think that, uh, in in the room and on the stream, the lieutenant governor came across as, um, you know, very aggressive.

And, um, you know, I think there's a way to look at that as their campaign perceives themselves as running from behind in the race, and they need to do something to, um, to differentiate themselves and gain attention from, um, Congressman Krishnamoorthi especially, who, as I said, has raised a lot of money, has a lot of, uh, big name endorsements.

Um, and, uh, you know, just has probably, at this point, pretty high name recognition, just based on everybody seeing his face every time they turn on their TV to watch a sporting event or a late night TV show or something like that.

Yeah.

>> Yeah, yeah.

I also want to make note.

I think it's important to note that there, there is a Republican part of this, of this US Senate primary race.

Uh, there are six Republican candidates that are running for the GOP nomination, including, as we mentioned, I think, Don Tracy, Kerry Cappelletti, Casey Chlebek, uh, Jeannie Evans, Pamela Davis Long and Jimmy Lee Tillman the second.

I don't believe they've held any sort of statewide or live or broadcast debate for him yet, but, um, I guess, Kent, how would you handicap the Republican side of this primary race for U.S.

Senate?

>> Well, it begins with the fact that Republicans hold no statewide office in Illinois, which is, you know, one place that you go looking for a candidate.

Uh, they only have three of the 17, uh, members of Congress, uh, are Republicans, and all of those are deep southern Illinois, uh, districts.

And so, you know, probably the most prominent Name that was put forth would be, uh, you know, a Congressman LaHood.

Uh, and, uh, you know, he's in a situation where, uh, you know, he's got a, you know, a strong, uh, base within Congress.

He's on important committees.

And, uh, you know, that looks a lot running for a pretty safe reelection.

Looked a lot more attractive than going up against, uh, a Democrat in an overwhelmingly, uh, you know, Democratic state.

And so I suspect that the Republicans will put enough money and effort behind Tracy, who's a former state Republican chairman, so that they won't end up with some kind of embarrassment where they've got a candidate that, uh, you know, runs on Save the Whales and suddenly, uh, you know, catches, a, you know, lightning in a bottle.

So I don't expect, you know, we're we're trying to find it, make it respectable.

Uh, which is not a great position to be in.

And there's no there's no national money.

Nobody wants to come in and flip, uh, you know, any of the seats that or positions that the Democrats hold in Illinois?

>> I wanted to talk about a little bit touch on on what we're looking at in terms of, of of voter turnout, both primary and the general.

Republican gubernatorial candidate, Darren Bailey, and his running mate, Aaron Delmar, have been going across the state.

And one of the things they've been talking about, at least they talked about down here in southern Illinois, one of their stops was getting the GOP voter turnout, and I think they were probably talking looking more at the general election primary, but they're talking about the need to get 50 to 55% of of of Republican voter turnout downstate in order to try and counteract the Democratic vote in Chicago for Republicans to be successful statewide as you as you kind of look at the at the election calculus for 2026 and in, in, in Illinois, um, any predictions or estimates on what we might see in terms of, of turnout, both on the Republican and Democratic sides and how important is that?

Is that going to be ultimately in whatever the outcomes are in in 26?

>> Well, I somewhat understand the point that they're trying to make about turnout, but something to keep in mind is, um, you know, the other side will also be trying very hard to turn out all their voters.

And we saw, you know, for example, between the 2020 and 2024 presidential election years, um, the top of the Democratic ticket fall off by about 400,000 votes, if I remember correctly.

So, um, there's a whole lot of Democrats who sometimes don't show up to.

So, um, you know, I'm sure the Democratic Party of Illinois, with lots of money from Governor Pritzker will be, uh, working very, very hard on the Get Out the vote campaign.

So, you know, I think it's just the the demographics and the population trends in Illinois are very hard for Republicans right now.

And, you know, it depends on whether they they find candidates that are able to sort of appeal to more independent voters in the suburbs or maybe some more, you know, middle of the road voters who who lean Democratic in the suburbs and things like that.

Um, I think, you know, it's I think it's going to be a very tough, tough year for Republicans across the country, frankly, but particularly in a deep blue state like Illinois.

Um, if, you know, with everything that's going on with the economy and the unpopularity of the president's immigration tactics right now.

So, um, you know, I think it's going to be interesting to see how, uh, Republican candidates running in Illinois, um, embrace those things, particularly when we get to the general election or try to distance themselves from from those things.

Um, you know, uh, Kent mentioned Darin LaHood earlier, who, uh, you know, he even put out a statement after the shooting in Minnesota over the weekend, uh, speaking up for people's First and Second Amendment rights and saying that we need answers about what happened.

And, you know, people should not be at risk when they're exercising their constitutional rights.

So you're starting to see a little daylight there between the president and some Republicans on certain issues.

So, um, I think I think it's a very tough hill to climb for Republicans in Illinois right now.

>> Yeah, absolutely.

The Donald Trump got about 2000 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020.

And so, uh, it it is the Democrats.

Uh, you know, there are lots of reasons why they stayed home.

Uh, there are lots of reasons for them to go, uh, and vote in this election.

And, uh, I don't see what's driving the Republican electorate to come out to the polls.

I mean, it's they really are in a defensive mode.

And and you know, obviously a lot can change between now and in November.

Uh, but, uh, if the Republicans have a couple more weeks like the last couple of weeks, you know, they're going to be in really bad shape in terms of, you know, getting beyond their base, which is, you know, will show up.

But, uh, so it's, it's it's likely to look to look more like, you know, the last couple of, of general elections rather than the most recent one.

>> Mhm.

Yeah.

We, uh, gentlemen, we've got, uh, about five and a half or so minutes left.

So I just kind of wanted to do a check in on the, on the spring legislative session.

It's it's underway.

Lawmakers held a few sessions, um, this month, I believe the Senate is back in session next month, the 1st of February.

And, uh, there's not been a lot of substantial work yet, but I know that the deadline for Bill introduction is is coming up next week.

And then, then, of course, we've got the governor's budget address coming up.

I believe that's on the 18th of February.

And we've talked before about how this is going to be a, a a difficult budget year.

Um, IB is already out with I think it's a $2.7 billion budget request they have for FY 27.

I think it's something like 4.5% increase in general revenue they're wanting.

Of course, we've got the got the backdrop of of the federal cuts in Medicaid and other health funding.

How tense is this budget process getting for for state agencies for this legislative session?

>> I think it's going to be a very tough year.

And, you know, the indication already in the current year that runs through the end of June, um, the governor is holding back almost half a half $1 billion in funding from the budget out of, uh, you know, they're they're trying to blame and probably with a lot of credibility blaming Trump administration and federal cuts and uncertainty at the economy for some of that.

Um, but I think it's also an indication of, you know, difficult times ahead.

I think, uh, you know, we're going to see a lot of fights over, um, programs that folks want to fund or want to increase funding for, um, higher education, for example, that that there's not going to be money for unless we get into conversation about, you know, different ways to bring in some more revenue, which is, um, you know, something that is a perennial conversation in Springfield.

But since 2020, when the governor, uh, you know, tried and failed to amend the Constitution to do the graduated income tax, um, there haven't been any real substantive, uh, looks at overhauling the state's revenue, uh, revenue streams.

And I think, you know, there's some talk.

Even House Speaker Chris Welch has alluded to this, uh, millionaire tax idea that folks have endorsed on on the ballot and non-binding referendums.

But the question is whether they want to put that on, uh, the, the ballot in November as a constitutional amendment in an election year.

Um, and whether that would help or hurt Democrats who are also on the ballot, including the governor, in the fall.

>> Kent.

>> Yeah, there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty because there are things within the reconciliation, the big, beautiful bill that the Republicans put through and, and the president signed that are going to phase in over the next 2 or 3 years involving federal income taxes.

And that will hurt Illinois's bottom line.

Uh, you know, we can't decouple from some of these things, but we try to make our income tax structure similar, both business and private, so that it's not, you know, we're not overwhelming people with, you know, how all of these differences between the two, the two systems.

And so, uh, they're just, you know, there are the threats of, uh, freezes and withholding, uh.

grant money that has already been promised.

Uh, you know, that drama just makes everybody very, very cautious about getting too far out above, uh, you know, over their skis.

Uh, you know, it would not surprise me at all that we have to come in and they'll put something through that will balance they have in, you know, however you define balance.

But they have to do it, you know, by the 30th of, of of May or 31st of May.

I wouldn't surprise me if we're doing a lot of budget work.

Uh, when they come back from the election in the fall.

Veto.

I think it's just too uncertain at this time.

And that crowds out everything else.

Nobody wants to do anything controversial.

You know, if you've you've got all your great achievements you've done last year, now you want to, you know, you want to run on them.

So you know, they they get back in town.

I think the house will have only been in session nine days in the Senate, like 19 before the, you know, before you have the, the primary.

And so it's going to be very crowded time frame zero information.

Uh, that's not a good way to make decisions.

So we shall see.

>> All right.

>> About the minute or so we have left.

Uh, what's, uh, what's on your radar for the coming week or weeks ahead?

>> Well, I'm going to be continuing to watch this.

Both the issues we've really been talking about.

So I guess all three, uh, the Senate race, immigration enforcement and the budget.

And so I think that's going to take up, uh, quite a bit of time going forward.

And, um, like Kent said, it's gonna be interesting to see how the session session shapes up when they get back from the primary in March.

>> Kent of interest.

>> Yeah.

And I don't you know, I just it's hard to do anything substantive and everything else is the budget.

So, uh, and, you know, we can do performance, performative kinds of things, you know, take positions and, uh, you know, that's worth something in campaigns.

Doesn't do much for public policy.

>> Kent.

I'll let you have the I'll let you have the last word.

We are out of time for this edition of Capital View, uh, for Dan Petrella, the Chicago Tribune and Kent Redfield, the University of Illinois, Springfield, I'm Jeff Williams.

Thank you for joining us this week for Capitol View.

Have a good week.

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